Thursday, July 31, 2008

Mission Accomplished?

I’m in first place now. After jockeying for second and third for the past couple of weeks, I had a solid day yesterday thanks to Eddie Encarnacion’s 20th HR and some good all-around production from my lineup. McCann’s still out with a concussion, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to spend time on the DL.

Still, when I say I’m in first place, I should qualify that: I’m tied for first with 90.5 points, but there’s a team with 89 points and a team with 87.5, so it’s a great race. I don’t expect to retain first place for the rest of the season. In fact, by the end of the day I could go from first to fourth. Still, it’s nice not to have to look up to anyone in the standings, even if it’s just for now.

Chris Carpenter’s outing was definitely reassuring. I was a little worried that bringing Carpenter, who has only pitched 9 innings in the pros since opening day 2007, back into the majors might have been premature. However, when you’re facing the Braves, it’s basically just another rehab start. Nothing against them, but could you have chosen a better opponent for Carp yesterday? Demoralized after the losses of Teixeira to the Halos and Hudson and Chipper to the DL, the Braves’ only decent hitters in the lineup yesterday were Escobar and Kotchman (sorry Jeff Francoeur, you’re not decent right now).
If nothing changes in the St. Louis rotation, Carpenter’s next starts would be at home against the Dodgers and Cubs and then on the road against Cincy. Not great matchups, but I’ll start him against the Dodgers and then decide whether I want to risk it against the Cubbie juggernaut.

I’m not counting on much from him. When I activate Carp from the DL I’m going to hold onto Matt Garza and Nolasco, so I’ll still have pitching depth. That’s not to say I’m not hoping though. He could be one of those players who dominates down the stretch and wins me a league. How about 8-2, 65 1/3IP, 59H, 57K, 12BB, 20ER, 7HR? It’s not that far off is it?

I’ve got to make a decision when I activate him though, and I hate to say it, but it looks like Cristian Guzman’s going to be the odd man out. The way I see it, Garza and Nolasco (the other two players I’d consider dropping) are harder to replace than Guzman. There are other decent shortstops out on waivers (the O.C., for example) and I’m starting J.J. Hardy every day over Guzman anyways. Still, it’s disappointing to have to drop a player who’s subbed in so well for me this year when he’s second in the NL in hits. Guzman’s line in my team log: 67/216, 28R, 2HR, 10 RBI (ouch), 2 SB, .310 AVG.

With the August 10th trade deadline looming, I need to decide whether this is the team I want to stick with for the next two months. I like what I have, but I wouldn’t mind upgrading over Encarnacion at utility. Obviously it would have been nice if Zimmerman had been that upgrade, but I’m going to wait for him to force my hand. Instead, I’m considering packaging a pitcher and a bat for a better hitter. No one seems to like receiving two lesser players for a stud though, so I may have to make some sort of a challenge trade instead.

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