Thursday, July 31, 2008

Sole Possession



It' s worth mentioning that, thanks to Justin Verlander's 9 strikeouts through 5 innings, and in spite of Grady Sizemore's three run jack, I've taken over sole possession of first place for the first time since May.


Mission Accomplished?

I’m in first place now. After jockeying for second and third for the past couple of weeks, I had a solid day yesterday thanks to Eddie Encarnacion’s 20th HR and some good all-around production from my lineup. McCann’s still out with a concussion, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to spend time on the DL.

Still, when I say I’m in first place, I should qualify that: I’m tied for first with 90.5 points, but there’s a team with 89 points and a team with 87.5, so it’s a great race. I don’t expect to retain first place for the rest of the season. In fact, by the end of the day I could go from first to fourth. Still, it’s nice not to have to look up to anyone in the standings, even if it’s just for now.

Chris Carpenter’s outing was definitely reassuring. I was a little worried that bringing Carpenter, who has only pitched 9 innings in the pros since opening day 2007, back into the majors might have been premature. However, when you’re facing the Braves, it’s basically just another rehab start. Nothing against them, but could you have chosen a better opponent for Carp yesterday? Demoralized after the losses of Teixeira to the Halos and Hudson and Chipper to the DL, the Braves’ only decent hitters in the lineup yesterday were Escobar and Kotchman (sorry Jeff Francoeur, you’re not decent right now).
If nothing changes in the St. Louis rotation, Carpenter’s next starts would be at home against the Dodgers and Cubs and then on the road against Cincy. Not great matchups, but I’ll start him against the Dodgers and then decide whether I want to risk it against the Cubbie juggernaut.

I’m not counting on much from him. When I activate Carp from the DL I’m going to hold onto Matt Garza and Nolasco, so I’ll still have pitching depth. That’s not to say I’m not hoping though. He could be one of those players who dominates down the stretch and wins me a league. How about 8-2, 65 1/3IP, 59H, 57K, 12BB, 20ER, 7HR? It’s not that far off is it?

I’ve got to make a decision when I activate him though, and I hate to say it, but it looks like Cristian Guzman’s going to be the odd man out. The way I see it, Garza and Nolasco (the other two players I’d consider dropping) are harder to replace than Guzman. There are other decent shortstops out on waivers (the O.C., for example) and I’m starting J.J. Hardy every day over Guzman anyways. Still, it’s disappointing to have to drop a player who’s subbed in so well for me this year when he’s second in the NL in hits. Guzman’s line in my team log: 67/216, 28R, 2HR, 10 RBI (ouch), 2 SB, .310 AVG.

With the August 10th trade deadline looming, I need to decide whether this is the team I want to stick with for the next two months. I like what I have, but I wouldn’t mind upgrading over Encarnacion at utility. Obviously it would have been nice if Zimmerman had been that upgrade, but I’m going to wait for him to force my hand. Instead, I’m considering packaging a pitcher and a bat for a better hitter. No one seems to like receiving two lesser players for a stud though, so I may have to make some sort of a challenge trade instead.

My Apologies

It’s been a while since I’ve updated the blog, and no, I haven’t fallen out of the race. Basically I’ve been busy in my real life so I’ve barely had time to play fantasy baseball, let alone blog about it.

I’m in the hunt though, and with my team as healthy as it’s ever been, I’ll blog through the end of the season as I try to bring home the title.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

+5 Points: An Unbelievable Tuesday

I was happy with 5.5 points the other day, but there’s no way I expected a follow-up performance like this from my team.

10.5 points is a lot to gain over the course of two days, but anything’s possible when you get good pitching.

Justin Verlander was incredible for the Tigers, going 7 innings, only allowing 3 baserunners and two earned runs, and striking out 7. Randy Wolf was just as good, going 7 shutout innings and continuing his streak of strong performances at home. The best part about my pitching is that both Wolf and Verlander got the win, moving me ahead in the tightly-packed win column.

On the hitting side, I got 8 RBI, 8 runs, 2 steals and 3 homers for a nicely balanced attack. Brian McCann continued to prove that he is the best hitting catcher in baseball with a 2 homer night and Ryan Braun added a statement of his own.

I also have a potential trade in the works. Since I have more starting pitchers than I can really hold onto all year and Dan’s low in innings, I’m talking about acquiring Ben Sheets in exchange for a few of my arms. I started by offering Dice-K and Parra, but the most recent version of the deal has me parting with Parra, Garza and Ricky Nolasco, all of whom are ranked in the top 100 fantasy players this month according to Yahoo (Nolasco is 3rd!). It’s tough to part like a guy like Nolasco, but I wouldn’t have room to keep all of those guys anyways and Ben Sheets is the best pitcher in the deal. I’m hoping to work something out soon so that I can get a Sheets start in before the break. If the deal falls through, I’ll move on to other players who have weak starters so that they can load up on reliable arms throughout the 2nd half.

Monday, July 7, 2008

+5.5 Points: An Unbelievable Monday

Eric Hinkse hit his 14th homer of the year yesterday, and even though he probably won’t play more than 2 or 3 more times for me throughout the rest of the year, I sure enjoyed the homer he hit. It wasn’t enough to get Matt Garza the win (more on that later) but Hinske’s day was characteristic of my entire team today.
Hinske, like Garza, Ricky Nolasco and Manny Parra is a waiver-wire pickup who isn’t likely to be on my roster at year’s end. I’m proud of the pickup, but I dropped him already to pick up Randy Wolf for his start against the Marlins tonight.

Along with Hinske, Matt Holliday and Big Daddy Vladdy homered, giving me a solid line of 11/27, 3R, 3HR, 5RBI. Not bad for a Monday.

Another side note on Hinkse before talking about the pitching line tonight: he and Garza were the first Rays to play for my team this year, but now I’ve had at least one player from each AL team and at least one player from every NL team but the Cards and Giants.

Garza wasn’t great for the Rays against the Royals. His final line (6.2 IP, 9H, 2BB, 5K, 3ER) was solid thanks to his success at emerging from jams unscathed, but he did allow 11 baserunners in less than 7 innings. Still, I’ll take the 5 Ks and decent ERA. I’m holding onto him for his start against the Indians, since they’re not really scaring anyone at this point.

Dice-K was the second of three starters I had going today, and he was the second best. He picked up 5 Ks and didn’t allow a run in 7.1 IP, but the Red Sox couldn’t beat the surprising Twins pitching until the 8th, so Dice-K didn’t get the win. He’s still so frustrating though, and his command is not good, so I’ll see if I can dangle him for a comparable starter.

The best start I got today was from Ricky Nolasco. He went 8 innings, only allowing one run and striking out 7 (including the last man to face him) en route to his 10th win of the year. I have to say that there was no reason to expect anything less from Nolasco, given that he’d been unbelievable in the 11 starts leading up to this one. A 3.01 ERA, a 60/18 K/BB ratio and an 8-1 record are pretty appealing, especially when you’re going up against the Friars.

No question about it, I’m holding onto Nolasco for his start against the Dodgers and then I’ll see what I can get for him on the market. It’s not that I want to trade him, but if someone’s looking to overpay for pitching, I’ll be more than happy to indulge him. If not, I’ll hold onto Nolasco until the hot streak ends.

Because of the C.C. trade, Manny Parra came out of the 'pen for a scoreless inning in a game in which Brian Fuentes pitched a perfect 9th for the save. Everything went well for my pitchers today. It was a 5 category day that I probably won’t replicate the rest of the way, but I’m just going to enjoy this line while it lasts:

24IP, 1W, 1 Save, 19 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.

Thanks to this line, and to my hitters as well, I’m at 79 points. My goal for the day was to get to 75, and I surpassed that by a lot. I’d love to be at 80 by the All-Star break and just go from there.

As far as this evening goes, I’m clearly pitching Justin Verlander against the Tribe, but, as I mentioned before, I also picked up Randy Wolf. He’s been amazing at home this year, ranking fifteenth in the majors in strikeouts at home. The Marlins’ offense hasn’t been great lately, and there’s nothing like Petco to stifle an offense. I like Wolf today, but I don’t particularly like him going forward, so I’m dropping him in favor of Clay Buchholz after his start against the Fish.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

+1 Point: Back in Fourth Place

Pretty much everything went according to plan yesterday. Mike Mussina delivered his 6th quality start in his last seven appearances against one of the better offenses in baseball, Matt Holliday continued to rake (he’s 14 for his last 31) and Alex Rios continues to make his best Brian Roberts impression (3 more SB and still no power).

I have 74.5 points now, and even though it’s on the wrong side of 75, I’ve been climbing up steadily the last few days. Once I get to 80 points anything is possible. I can gain three points in wins with three wins and I have three starters going on Monday in Garza, Nolasco and Dice-K.

I know that I’ve said that I don’t have confidence in Mussina because “he turns 40 this year, his strikeout rate is low (5K/9IP) and righties have an OPS of .896 against him”. Mussina began the year with a very low K-rate, but since the beginning of June, he’s been striking out almost 7 per nine. If he can continue to strike hitters out at this rate, he’ll be successful enough to warrant a roster spot year long.

I wish the Pirates would start winning so we’d have a better idea of who’s going to get the save ops in lieu of Matt Capps. I have John Grabow, but I’m worried that he’s not going to get the chances even though he probably deserves a shot at it given that he’s been reliable all year long for the Bucs.

Friday, July 4, 2008

+0.5 Points: The Slow Climb

Neither Manny Parra nor Justin Verlander had great stuff yesterday, but both pitched well enough to win.
Unfortunately for me, only Verlander actually got the win, because the D-Backs, for the first time since April 19th, scored 6 runs in an inning, beating the Brewers and their pen walk-off style and robbing Parra of what should have been his seventh win in as many starts.

I thought about picking up Bronson Arroyo for his start against the Nats, but his hit and homer rates are so bad that maybe even Washington can hit him. Instead, I’m only rolling with Derek Lowe today against the Giants.

Now that I’m getting some pitching it’d be nice to get the bats going too.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

0 Points: From Fourth to… Fifth?

Even though I sunk further into mediocrity yesterday, I was pleased with my day.

Admittedly I got a little lucky when Alfredo Amezaga homered after a long rain delay in the bottom of the 7th to give the Marlins the lead and Ricky Nolasco the win.

Throw in a solid pitching performance by Dice-K (which he had a chance to win until Evan Longoria stepped into one for a two-run double) and a huge night for the Giambino and I had a pretty rewarding day. Unfortunately, Jason Giambi was basically my entire offense yesterday, accounting for 2 of my 6 hits, 2 of my 5 runs, 6 of my 7 RBI and my only homer. Of course when a player has a day like that it’s OK when no one else hits, which is why I was satisfied with the team.

Today I’m gambling that Manny Parra, the winner of his last six starts, can come through against the deflated D-Backs who fell below .500 yesterday (42-43) for the first time since April 3rd. It’s the second time in a week that I’m betting on the Brewers pitchers to overcome the Arizona offense, and this time it’s against Brandon Webb. Even still, the D-Backs have had so much trouble scoring and Parra’s been so hot lately that I’m confident in the matchup… if only his walk rate wasn’t so high.

Still, I have Justin Verlander going too, so I’ll count on him to undo any damage Parra does in the afternoon.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

No Fiasco For Nolasco

Ricky Nolasco came through with a dominant performance this afternoon, putting an end to the trend of poor starts for my pitchers.

Before the rain set in in Miami, Nolasco pitched 7 innings, retiring 14 of the last 15 batters to face him. He only allowed three hits and didn’t walk a man, striking out 8.

As I found out from the FSN Miami broadcast team, Nolasco has now allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Given that his next two starts are against the Padres (always a struggling offense) and Dodgers (currently a struggling offense) I think I’ll hold onto Nolasco until the break.

I know it was the Nationals sans Zimmerman, Guzman and Milledge, but Nolasco really pounded the strike zone fearlessly. His fastball was in the 92-94 range on the outside corner and his curve was a consistent out-pitch.

He’s likely not going to get the win, but I’m really happy with the Nolasco pickup.

+ 0.5 Points: A Day at the Races

In spite of Wandy Rodriguez’s weak performance, I had a decent day yesterday.

Brian Roberts was a stat-stuffer for me yesterday, stealing a bag and hitting a bomb. Willie Taveras and Matt Holliday also stole bases for me to give me four steals and put me in first place in steals.
However, my WHIP continues to soar, since Wandy allowed 10 baserunners through 5 innings, but guys like Wandy are on waivers for a reason. They’re just not as proven and reliable as the Tim Hudsons of the world.

I don’t regret starting Wandy any more than I regret starting Dave Bush a couple days back. I mean Wandy was pitching in the midst of a hot streak, at home, where he’s been great, and against an offense that amassed only three hits in its last two games against the Angels this weekend.

I haven’t lost complete confidence in Wandy or Dave Bush. If they’re pitching in the right situation, I’ll go for it. The fact that they allowed 9 ER in 10 innings is pretty rough, especially since it means I need to go out there and pick starters up to try and gain some points back in the pitching rate cats.
To help me climb back into things, I’m pitching Ricky Nolasco against the Nats this afternoon. After doing so much research for Dave Bush and Wandy only to get no results in return, I decided to make a quick pick this time and see what happens. I just sorted today’s starters by how well they’ve pitched in the last month and picked the man atop the list (it made things easier when I saw that he was facing the Nats at home!).

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

-3.5 Points: Disaster Strikes

Yesterday was a complete failure.

My team went 6/36 with only 4 runs and a steal. That’s right, no homers and no RBI.

The worst part of it all is that I feel like an idiot for pitching Dave Bush and benching Mike Mussina. Mussina managed to strike out 8 Rangers, allowing only 7 baserunners and 2 runs over six solid innings in a losing effort.

Down in the desert, Dave Bush was solid through four innings before one of the more frustrating half innings of my fantasy season unfolded in front of me. The D-Backs leveraged a bloop double by Stephen Drew and a bloop single by Conor Jackson into a three run inning.

Now I’m not going to say that Bush deserved to come out of the inning unscathed, but it’s pretty frustrating to see Bill Hall, who’s not exactly Brooks Robinson at the hot corner, allow a blooper to fall in for a double. What was perhaps the most infuriating play of all came when Jackson, the next batter, blooped a ball in front of Corey Hart in shallow right. Hart’s throw short hopped Kendall so a run scores. Fair enough, Arizona deserved to score on that play. But not twice. Dave Bush, unfortunately for the Brewers and any fantasy owners of his, decided not to back up home plate on the play (check the clip "jackson scores drew and ojeda with a double"), so when the ball skidded past his receiver to the backstop, no one was able to prevent Drew from scoring.

Again, I’m not saying that Bush deserved to win; he allowed hard hit balls to go along with the bloopers. It’s just that I’d rather see my pitchers allow runs because other teams hit them, not because they neglect to back up a throw from the outfield in a close game.

Oh, and in Colorado Brian Fuentes faced five batters and they all scored.

Wandy Rodriguez had better pitch well tonight against LA.