+0.5 Points: Get Well Soon Ryan

My day was solid yesterday, as I got home runs from Hardy, Giambi, Vladdy and McCann. Armando Galarraga was good enough to win even though Dice-K out-preformed him (while sitting on my bench).

I was sure that JJ Putz was going to get the win for the 4th time this week when the bases were loaded with one out in the 10th for Adrian Beltre. Who am I kidding though, 4 wins in a week is too much to ask from the Mariners, as I discovered when Adrian Gonzalez grounded into a double play.

I also heard the most worrisome fantasy baseball news I've come across in a while. Ryan Braun's ribcage hurts. All I can say is get well soon.

0 Points: But a 4.5 Point Lead

Francisco Cordero allowed 4 runs, spoiling what was an otherwise solid fantasy day. My team didn't hit for average, but JJ Hardy homered and I got great production from my Rockies as Holliday and Taveras stole bases before Fuentes got the save, his 20th on my roster.

Ricky Nolasco wasn't great, but he was going up against the Mets on the road, and, for the second time in 2 weeks he pitched well against them. I don't want to nit-pick, but if there's a bit of a hole in Nolasco's game it's the home run ball. He's allowed 22 of them in just under 150 innings, including 2 in each of his last 2 starts.

The White Sox have burned me too many times this year for me to start Dice-K against them. Even if he goes 7IP, 2H, 4BB, 7K, W it's not worth the risk for me when I have other ways of picking up the innings.

And the Vernon Wells photo's there because he's my latest pickup. I'm hoping he can be the bat I was looking for at the deadline.

+2 Points to 94.5

JJ Putz continued his run as the Mariners' lucky charm last night, picking up his 3rd win since Sunday. I admit it's more than a little lucky, especially when you consider that it's taken Johan Santana since June 1st to collect his last 3 wins, but I like to think that these things even out over the course of a season. I looked up the last time a reliever won as many games in such a short span of time, but it's more common than I expected. Joe Beimel did it from April 27 to May 1st of this season.

JJ wasn't the only winner for me yesterday, because Mike Mussina won his 15th game of the season. Last time he pitched against the Rangers, I benched him and got burned by it, so I was relieved to see him pitch so well. As Craig Brown points out on THT, Mussina's reduced his walk rate to a career best 1.28/9IP while inducing more ground balls. Because of the low walk totals, a solid K rate and all of the grounders, Mussina should be able to finish the season strong. Could this be the year he finally wins 20?

And even though I don't really need another light-hitting speedster, Don Sutton was raving about Emilio Bonifacio on the Nats broadcast yesterday, and I have to admit that Bonifacio's speed is awesome.

-0.5 Points: An Ugly Way to Stay in First

Derek Lowe was awful yesterday, allowing 13 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings vs. the Cards. I didn't watch the game- thank god- but Lowe told the LA Times that he left flat sinkers up and over the plate. I'll give him a mulligan on this one because I'd rather have Lowe lose with his sinker than with any other pitch. It's been a consistent pitch for him for years and it will come back, so I'm going to start him next time out against the Phillies at home.

Justin Verlander's line was awful yesterday, and there's no denying that he's really hurt me in his last three starts (vs. CHW, @CLE, @CHW). However, the dilemma that I face regarding Verlander's a lot easier to handle than it seems. Jim Leyland had to lean on Verlander after using 7 of his relievers to the tune of 133 pitches in a game that proved to the Tigers and everybody else that they have no chance of making noise down the stretch this year. So Verlander was going to have to suck up a couple extra innings to save the 'pen a little. When I saw that Verlander had thrown 130 pitches, I was miffed, but it sounds worse than it really was. Going into the 8th inning, Verlander had thrown 107 pitches and retired 18 of his last 21 opponents. He retired the first two batters before allowing a double and a couple of walks. He left the game trailing 3-0, but Aquilino Lopez couldn't hold the runners so, for the second straight game, Verlander's bullpen allowed more than one inherited runner to score. This isn't to say that Verlander was great yesterday, but after his first inning troubles he stuck around long enough to help his bullpen and long enough for his bullpen to hurt him.

On a more positive note, I picked up "Everyday" Eddie Guardado, who has the best 87 mph fastball in baseball and the chance to save games with it now that CJ Wilson has finally admitted that he's hurt. It's a good move for me since it gives me the depth at closer to make a deal for another bat. I'm working on a deal for Xavier Nady now, trying to figure out which one of my closers to give up for the Yankees' newest bat.

+0.5 Points: And into First

One of the reasons that real baseball is more fun than fantasy baseball is that an individual player's quirks don't matter in fantasy baseball. You don't get extra points if your player high-fives a fan mid-play, or if he grows an unsightly moustache. Last night, I saw Mike Gonzalez pitch for the first time since he's added a wrinkle to his windup and even though he's on two of my teams, I wasn't so much rooting for him as laughing at his windup.
While he awaits the sign from his catcher, Gonzalez stands with his legs spread wide and his knees bent, rocking his hips back and forth between 4 and 8 times before beginning the more traditional part of his delivery. It's quite a sight.

Gonzalez told mlb.com that his windup makes him "feel more intense," which is fair enough, since, as he says, facing the Marlins in Miami for a day game isn't exactly high pressure. I hope he doesn't abandon it though- it's one of the few reasons to watch the Braves for the rest of 2008.

Votto or Zimmerman

In real baseball, there's no question; Ryan Zimmerman's more valuable than Joey Votto. Zimmerman's defense is phenomenal, and although Votto has put together some impressive minor league seasons, the one thing more impressive than succeeding year in and year out in the minors is powering through an organization in half a season.

But when you're gunning for a fantasy baseball championship in something other than a dynasty league, Ryan Zimmerman's pedigree only matters if he's producing (because let's face it, you're not holding onto him in a keeper league unless it's really deep). So even though he was my seventh round draft pick this year, and I really like his chances of rebecoming a valuable fantasy player, Zimmerman hasn't arrived yet, so I'm mulling over my options.

I'm looking for a player like Zimmerman, someone who can hit for a little power in one of my utility spots without killing my average. While scanning the waiver wire, I gave little consideration to guys like Jack Cust (can't afford the 0 for 4s) and Fernando Tatis (no, I'm not a believer). Joey Votto, however, caught my eye.

He's got 14 HR and he's hitting .279, so he's in the discussion right away. The numbers are solid, but they're worse than the ones expected of him going into the season. Part of the reason that the numbers aren't more impressive is that Votto, whose line drive rate ranks 3rd in the league, is 20th in the NL in BABIP. We can expect his BABIP to climb up from .318 if his line drive rate stays at a lusty 26.4%, bringing his season average closer to his minor league mark of .289. With the average, he'll drive in more runs and score more often. The discrepancy between his line drive rate and his batting average in balls in play doesn't suggest that he'll hit more home runs, but we can expect 7 home runs or so over the course of the next couple months.

I like Votto, but for now, I'll be watching him rake on the wire, waiting for Zimmerman to heat up. I'm going to wait another few days and try to watch them both as much as possible before deciding who will spend the rest of the season in my lineup.

+0.5 Points: A Half Point Out

Just a solid day, 3HR and some nice RBI and run totals with a solid average. Ryan Braun (below, restraining his teammates) clubbed number 30 and Vladdy and a stache-less Giambino chimed in with long balls of their own.

+2.5 Points: And into Second Place

My pitching was amazing today: 17.1 innings, 2W, 2SV, 14Ks, 1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP.

Armando Galarraga dominated the Rays for 7 innings, and even though I'm not crazy about him, I'll take what I can get from the Venezuelan righty. The Tigers bullpen deprived him of the win that he deserved, but JJ Putz made up for that later at Safeco.

Dice-K gave me exactly what I've come to expect from him, which is to say 43 pitches through two innings, 8 strikeouts after 6 innings and a win that looks a lot better on the scorecard than it did in real life.

I need some hitting now and for the next few days, but I'm happy with the production I got this weekend. At half a point out of first and 92.5 points, the lead is in sight, even if my pursuers (91 and 86 points) are too.

Current Roto Standings for the Majors

I was wondering which major league teams would be atop the standings if, instead of wins and losses, the traditional roto categories determined each team's place in their division. That is to say, would anything change if R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA and WHIP counted the way they do in our fantasy leagues? The short answer is 'no', or, at least 'barely', but there are a few interesting things behind the standings.

The totals are as of this morning. Like any roto league, the teams received one point for finishing last in the league, two for second-last, and so on. The totals are higher in the National League because, of course, there are two more teams in the senior circuit. I should mention that I have the complete chart and I'd be happy to send it to anyone who'd like to take a closer look. To fit it on here, I would have had to make the numbers pretty tiny.

Not surprisingly, the American League standings (how about this for a true AL only league, by the way) feature the AL East, but the Red Sox far surpass their counterparts in the traditional fantasy categories. Theo's managed his team the way any good fantasy GM might. He's got the power bats, the big closer, the strikeout artists and the speedsters. He's made big deals when he's had to and, even though his team is stacked with high upside youngsters, Epstein hasn't been afraid to bench them when they haven't performed.

Philly does a little better in the fantasy standings than they do in the real life ones, but it's hardly surprising when you consider that they have three 2008 first rounders. And the Nationals are pathetic. My slo-pitch softball team would have 10 points. Seriously, you're given 10 points no matter what and the Nats have only tacked on 19 points on top of that!

Still, I'm not trying to say that this changes about the way I manage my teams, since this chart doesn't mean a thing for real baseball or for fantasy baseball!

+0.5 Points: Something of a Stud

Yesterday was as good as any day can be when only three players produce. Mike Mussina and Ricky Nolasco overcame tough matchups to win their starts and Matt Holliday homered twice. Both pitchers have amazed me all year, and it’s all about command of the strike zone for both of them.

Nolasco struck out 13 Rockies- in itself an impressive feat- but he did so without walking anyone. Nolasco’s control just keeps getting better as the year goes on. He walked 25 batters in his first 13 games, over the course of 66 innings. This isn’t a bad rate, especially for a pitcher finding his bearings in the league, but something clicked and Nolasco’s been a changed pitcher in the last two months. His strikeout to walk ratio is 77 to 9 since June 10th, and, for those of you without a calculator or an aptitude for mental math, that’s a rate of nearly 9 to 1.

Nolasco’s command has improved, and as an owner of Verlander and Dice-K, it’s reassuring to have at least one pitcher who’s efficient with his pitches. Nolasco will strike people out because he’s in the strike zone and he has good stuff, but he’s not going to mess around too much. Even though he stuck out 13 last night, he went 8 innings and spent only 93 pitches. It’s the most strikeouts anyone’s totaled on less than 100 pitches in 2008. In fact, he ties 5 other pitchers for the highest single-game strikeout total of the year. He ties a couple of no-name pitchers as the one of three pitchers since 1956 to record as many Ks with as few pitches. Greg Maddux did it in 2000 and Tom Seaver pulled it off in 1971.

In real baseball and in fantasy baseball, Nolasco is something of a stud.

-0.5 Points: Power Outage

Not an awful day, but I need some power. I managed to scrape together 10 hits, 7 runs and 3 steals yesterday, but with no homers and only 3 RBI, I really need some power, as I’m only 6 RBI away from 2 points. My team’s built to be powerful, but with McCann out and Giambi slumping, it’s been a tough week.
I don’t think I mentioned this earlier, but the trade deadline worked out very well for my team. Brian Fuentes and Mike Gonzalez were not traded and, more importantly for me, were not deprived of the chance to save ballgames. Combined with Putz, Cordero and Hoffman, I should be able to cover lots of ground in saves, moving up a few points by the end of the season.

Speaking of Hoffman, I nearly lucked out and got a vulture win last night. Brian Wilson loaded the bases for Kouz with one out in the 10th down a run, but the former Cleveland farmhand could only roll into a double play, killing the Padres’ chances of winning.

Today I’ve got Mussina going against the Angels and Nolasco’s Marlins hosting the Rockies. Neither one of these matchups is great, but these guys have been pitching too well not to have a little confidence in them.

I’m putting Willy Taveras on the trading block. He has 50 steals so far, and I just don’t need 25 more steals. With Roberts, Rios and Holliday, I’ll be able to finish in the top two in steals with or without Taveras. I’m leading by 15 swipes and the 3rd place team trails me by 25. I’m going to hope to get someone who can hit 10 HR for me the rest of the way without killing me in average.

-0.5 Points: Back in Third

I tasted first place yesterday, but my enjoyment was short-lived. Soon after my team made it to the top of the standings, Justin Verlander stopped throwing strikes. There are many ways that my fantasy team has frustrated me this year, and Justin Verlander reminded me of at least three of them yesterday:

i) He stopped throwing strikes. Come on, man, you’re one of the least hittable pitchers in baseball. No one can touch the heat and you’ve got great offspeed stuff too. Don’t mess around, especially against Sal Fasano and Asdrubal Cabrera.

ii) His bullpen let him down. Clay Rapada allowed two inherited runners to score in the 6th. It’s not that Verlander deserved better, but I’d rather not see my ERA skyrocket because of the incompetence of a reliever who had 15.3 major league innings to his name entering yesterday’s game.

iii) In spite of the ugly line, Verlander was dominant. He struck out 9 of the 26 men to face him (4 in a row at one point) and only allowed 5 base hits. It’s not that I want my pitchers to look bad when they pitch badly, but it’s frustrating all the same.

Verlander aside, I had a decent day yesterday, thanks to Derek Lowe’s continued hot streak (or is this just a good season? It’s been months now) and some pop from Vladdy.
I picked up Armando Galarraga to replace Matt Garza, who I had to drop when I picked up Jim Johnson in preparation for the George Sherrill trade that never happened. I was disappointed to see that one of my main adversaries had picked up Garza, but my disappointment was lessened when I saw that the little cat’s numbers are actually better than Garza’s.