+0.5 Points: Get Well Soon Ryan

My day was solid yesterday, as I got home runs from Hardy, Giambi, Vladdy and McCann. Armando Galarraga was good enough to win even though Dice-K out-preformed him (while sitting on my bench).

I was sure that JJ Putz was going to get the win for the 4th time this week when the bases were loaded with one out in the 10th for Adrian Beltre. Who am I kidding though, 4 wins in a week is too much to ask from the Mariners, as I discovered when Adrian Gonzalez grounded into a double play.

I also heard the most worrisome fantasy baseball news I've come across in a while. Ryan Braun's ribcage hurts. All I can say is get well soon.

0 Points: But a 4.5 Point Lead

Francisco Cordero allowed 4 runs, spoiling what was an otherwise solid fantasy day. My team didn't hit for average, but JJ Hardy homered and I got great production from my Rockies as Holliday and Taveras stole bases before Fuentes got the save, his 20th on my roster.

Ricky Nolasco wasn't great, but he was going up against the Mets on the road, and, for the second time in 2 weeks he pitched well against them. I don't want to nit-pick, but if there's a bit of a hole in Nolasco's game it's the home run ball. He's allowed 22 of them in just under 150 innings, including 2 in each of his last 2 starts.

The White Sox have burned me too many times this year for me to start Dice-K against them. Even if he goes 7IP, 2H, 4BB, 7K, W it's not worth the risk for me when I have other ways of picking up the innings.

And the Vernon Wells photo's there because he's my latest pickup. I'm hoping he can be the bat I was looking for at the deadline.

+2 Points to 94.5

JJ Putz continued his run as the Mariners' lucky charm last night, picking up his 3rd win since Sunday. I admit it's more than a little lucky, especially when you consider that it's taken Johan Santana since June 1st to collect his last 3 wins, but I like to think that these things even out over the course of a season. I looked up the last time a reliever won as many games in such a short span of time, but it's more common than I expected. Joe Beimel did it from April 27 to May 1st of this season.

JJ wasn't the only winner for me yesterday, because Mike Mussina won his 15th game of the season. Last time he pitched against the Rangers, I benched him and got burned by it, so I was relieved to see him pitch so well. As Craig Brown points out on THT, Mussina's reduced his walk rate to a career best 1.28/9IP while inducing more ground balls. Because of the low walk totals, a solid K rate and all of the grounders, Mussina should be able to finish the season strong. Could this be the year he finally wins 20?

And even though I don't really need another light-hitting speedster, Don Sutton was raving about Emilio Bonifacio on the Nats broadcast yesterday, and I have to admit that Bonifacio's speed is awesome.

-0.5 Points: An Ugly Way to Stay in First

Derek Lowe was awful yesterday, allowing 13 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings vs. the Cards. I didn't watch the game- thank god- but Lowe told the LA Times that he left flat sinkers up and over the plate. I'll give him a mulligan on this one because I'd rather have Lowe lose with his sinker than with any other pitch. It's been a consistent pitch for him for years and it will come back, so I'm going to start him next time out against the Phillies at home.

Justin Verlander's line was awful yesterday, and there's no denying that he's really hurt me in his last three starts (vs. CHW, @CLE, @CHW). However, the dilemma that I face regarding Verlander's a lot easier to handle than it seems. Jim Leyland had to lean on Verlander after using 7 of his relievers to the tune of 133 pitches in a game that proved to the Tigers and everybody else that they have no chance of making noise down the stretch this year. So Verlander was going to have to suck up a couple extra innings to save the 'pen a little. When I saw that Verlander had thrown 130 pitches, I was miffed, but it sounds worse than it really was. Going into the 8th inning, Verlander had thrown 107 pitches and retired 18 of his last 21 opponents. He retired the first two batters before allowing a double and a couple of walks. He left the game trailing 3-0, but Aquilino Lopez couldn't hold the runners so, for the second straight game, Verlander's bullpen allowed more than one inherited runner to score. This isn't to say that Verlander was great yesterday, but after his first inning troubles he stuck around long enough to help his bullpen and long enough for his bullpen to hurt him.

On a more positive note, I picked up "Everyday" Eddie Guardado, who has the best 87 mph fastball in baseball and the chance to save games with it now that CJ Wilson has finally admitted that he's hurt. It's a good move for me since it gives me the depth at closer to make a deal for another bat. I'm working on a deal for Xavier Nady now, trying to figure out which one of my closers to give up for the Yankees' newest bat.

+0.5 Points: And into First

One of the reasons that real baseball is more fun than fantasy baseball is that an individual player's quirks don't matter in fantasy baseball. You don't get extra points if your player high-fives a fan mid-play, or if he grows an unsightly moustache. Last night, I saw Mike Gonzalez pitch for the first time since he's added a wrinkle to his windup and even though he's on two of my teams, I wasn't so much rooting for him as laughing at his windup.
While he awaits the sign from his catcher, Gonzalez stands with his legs spread wide and his knees bent, rocking his hips back and forth between 4 and 8 times before beginning the more traditional part of his delivery. It's quite a sight.

Gonzalez told mlb.com that his windup makes him "feel more intense," which is fair enough, since, as he says, facing the Marlins in Miami for a day game isn't exactly high pressure. I hope he doesn't abandon it though- it's one of the few reasons to watch the Braves for the rest of 2008.

Votto or Zimmerman

In real baseball, there's no question; Ryan Zimmerman's more valuable than Joey Votto. Zimmerman's defense is phenomenal, and although Votto has put together some impressive minor league seasons, the one thing more impressive than succeeding year in and year out in the minors is powering through an organization in half a season.

But when you're gunning for a fantasy baseball championship in something other than a dynasty league, Ryan Zimmerman's pedigree only matters if he's producing (because let's face it, you're not holding onto him in a keeper league unless it's really deep). So even though he was my seventh round draft pick this year, and I really like his chances of rebecoming a valuable fantasy player, Zimmerman hasn't arrived yet, so I'm mulling over my options.

I'm looking for a player like Zimmerman, someone who can hit for a little power in one of my utility spots without killing my average. While scanning the waiver wire, I gave little consideration to guys like Jack Cust (can't afford the 0 for 4s) and Fernando Tatis (no, I'm not a believer). Joey Votto, however, caught my eye.

He's got 14 HR and he's hitting .279, so he's in the discussion right away. The numbers are solid, but they're worse than the ones expected of him going into the season. Part of the reason that the numbers aren't more impressive is that Votto, whose line drive rate ranks 3rd in the league, is 20th in the NL in BABIP. We can expect his BABIP to climb up from .318 if his line drive rate stays at a lusty 26.4%, bringing his season average closer to his minor league mark of .289. With the average, he'll drive in more runs and score more often. The discrepancy between his line drive rate and his batting average in balls in play doesn't suggest that he'll hit more home runs, but we can expect 7 home runs or so over the course of the next couple months.

I like Votto, but for now, I'll be watching him rake on the wire, waiting for Zimmerman to heat up. I'm going to wait another few days and try to watch them both as much as possible before deciding who will spend the rest of the season in my lineup.

+0.5 Points: A Half Point Out

Just a solid day, 3HR and some nice RBI and run totals with a solid average. Ryan Braun (below, restraining his teammates) clubbed number 30 and Vladdy and a stache-less Giambino chimed in with long balls of their own.

+2.5 Points: And into Second Place

My pitching was amazing today: 17.1 innings, 2W, 2SV, 14Ks, 1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP.

Armando Galarraga dominated the Rays for 7 innings, and even though I'm not crazy about him, I'll take what I can get from the Venezuelan righty. The Tigers bullpen deprived him of the win that he deserved, but JJ Putz made up for that later at Safeco.

Dice-K gave me exactly what I've come to expect from him, which is to say 43 pitches through two innings, 8 strikeouts after 6 innings and a win that looks a lot better on the scorecard than it did in real life.

I need some hitting now and for the next few days, but I'm happy with the production I got this weekend. At half a point out of first and 92.5 points, the lead is in sight, even if my pursuers (91 and 86 points) are too.

Current Roto Standings for the Majors

I was wondering which major league teams would be atop the standings if, instead of wins and losses, the traditional roto categories determined each team's place in their division. That is to say, would anything change if R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA and WHIP counted the way they do in our fantasy leagues? The short answer is 'no', or, at least 'barely', but there are a few interesting things behind the standings.

The totals are as of this morning. Like any roto league, the teams received one point for finishing last in the league, two for second-last, and so on. The totals are higher in the National League because, of course, there are two more teams in the senior circuit. I should mention that I have the complete chart and I'd be happy to send it to anyone who'd like to take a closer look. To fit it on here, I would have had to make the numbers pretty tiny.

Not surprisingly, the American League standings (how about this for a true AL only league, by the way) feature the AL East, but the Red Sox far surpass their counterparts in the traditional fantasy categories. Theo's managed his team the way any good fantasy GM might. He's got the power bats, the big closer, the strikeout artists and the speedsters. He's made big deals when he's had to and, even though his team is stacked with high upside youngsters, Epstein hasn't been afraid to bench them when they haven't performed.

Philly does a little better in the fantasy standings than they do in the real life ones, but it's hardly surprising when you consider that they have three 2008 first rounders. And the Nationals are pathetic. My slo-pitch softball team would have 10 points. Seriously, you're given 10 points no matter what and the Nats have only tacked on 19 points on top of that!

Still, I'm not trying to say that this changes about the way I manage my teams, since this chart doesn't mean a thing for real baseball or for fantasy baseball!

+0.5 Points: Something of a Stud

Yesterday was as good as any day can be when only three players produce. Mike Mussina and Ricky Nolasco overcame tough matchups to win their starts and Matt Holliday homered twice. Both pitchers have amazed me all year, and it’s all about command of the strike zone for both of them.

Nolasco struck out 13 Rockies- in itself an impressive feat- but he did so without walking anyone. Nolasco’s control just keeps getting better as the year goes on. He walked 25 batters in his first 13 games, over the course of 66 innings. This isn’t a bad rate, especially for a pitcher finding his bearings in the league, but something clicked and Nolasco’s been a changed pitcher in the last two months. His strikeout to walk ratio is 77 to 9 since June 10th, and, for those of you without a calculator or an aptitude for mental math, that’s a rate of nearly 9 to 1.

Nolasco’s command has improved, and as an owner of Verlander and Dice-K, it’s reassuring to have at least one pitcher who’s efficient with his pitches. Nolasco will strike people out because he’s in the strike zone and he has good stuff, but he’s not going to mess around too much. Even though he stuck out 13 last night, he went 8 innings and spent only 93 pitches. It’s the most strikeouts anyone’s totaled on less than 100 pitches in 2008. In fact, he ties 5 other pitchers for the highest single-game strikeout total of the year. He ties a couple of no-name pitchers as the one of three pitchers since 1956 to record as many Ks with as few pitches. Greg Maddux did it in 2000 and Tom Seaver pulled it off in 1971.

In real baseball and in fantasy baseball, Nolasco is something of a stud.

-0.5 Points: Power Outage

Not an awful day, but I need some power. I managed to scrape together 10 hits, 7 runs and 3 steals yesterday, but with no homers and only 3 RBI, I really need some power, as I’m only 6 RBI away from 2 points. My team’s built to be powerful, but with McCann out and Giambi slumping, it’s been a tough week.
I don’t think I mentioned this earlier, but the trade deadline worked out very well for my team. Brian Fuentes and Mike Gonzalez were not traded and, more importantly for me, were not deprived of the chance to save ballgames. Combined with Putz, Cordero and Hoffman, I should be able to cover lots of ground in saves, moving up a few points by the end of the season.

Speaking of Hoffman, I nearly lucked out and got a vulture win last night. Brian Wilson loaded the bases for Kouz with one out in the 10th down a run, but the former Cleveland farmhand could only roll into a double play, killing the Padres’ chances of winning.

Today I’ve got Mussina going against the Angels and Nolasco’s Marlins hosting the Rockies. Neither one of these matchups is great, but these guys have been pitching too well not to have a little confidence in them.

I’m putting Willy Taveras on the trading block. He has 50 steals so far, and I just don’t need 25 more steals. With Roberts, Rios and Holliday, I’ll be able to finish in the top two in steals with or without Taveras. I’m leading by 15 swipes and the 3rd place team trails me by 25. I’m going to hope to get someone who can hit 10 HR for me the rest of the way without killing me in average.

-0.5 Points: Back in Third

I tasted first place yesterday, but my enjoyment was short-lived. Soon after my team made it to the top of the standings, Justin Verlander stopped throwing strikes. There are many ways that my fantasy team has frustrated me this year, and Justin Verlander reminded me of at least three of them yesterday:

i) He stopped throwing strikes. Come on, man, you’re one of the least hittable pitchers in baseball. No one can touch the heat and you’ve got great offspeed stuff too. Don’t mess around, especially against Sal Fasano and Asdrubal Cabrera.

ii) His bullpen let him down. Clay Rapada allowed two inherited runners to score in the 6th. It’s not that Verlander deserved better, but I’d rather not see my ERA skyrocket because of the incompetence of a reliever who had 15.3 major league innings to his name entering yesterday’s game.

iii) In spite of the ugly line, Verlander was dominant. He struck out 9 of the 26 men to face him (4 in a row at one point) and only allowed 5 base hits. It’s not that I want my pitchers to look bad when they pitch badly, but it’s frustrating all the same.

Verlander aside, I had a decent day yesterday, thanks to Derek Lowe’s continued hot streak (or is this just a good season? It’s been months now) and some pop from Vladdy.
I picked up Armando Galarraga to replace Matt Garza, who I had to drop when I picked up Jim Johnson in preparation for the George Sherrill trade that never happened. I was disappointed to see that one of my main adversaries had picked up Garza, but my disappointment was lessened when I saw that the little cat’s numbers are actually better than Garza’s.

Sole Possession

It' s worth mentioning that, thanks to Justin Verlander's 9 strikeouts through 5 innings, and in spite of Grady Sizemore's three run jack, I've taken over sole possession of first place for the first time since May.

Mission Accomplished?

I’m in first place now. After jockeying for second and third for the past couple of weeks, I had a solid day yesterday thanks to Eddie Encarnacion’s 20th HR and some good all-around production from my lineup. McCann’s still out with a concussion, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to spend time on the DL.

Still, when I say I’m in first place, I should qualify that: I’m tied for first with 90.5 points, but there’s a team with 89 points and a team with 87.5, so it’s a great race. I don’t expect to retain first place for the rest of the season. In fact, by the end of the day I could go from first to fourth. Still, it’s nice not to have to look up to anyone in the standings, even if it’s just for now.

Chris Carpenter’s outing was definitely reassuring. I was a little worried that bringing Carpenter, who has only pitched 9 innings in the pros since opening day 2007, back into the majors might have been premature. However, when you’re facing the Braves, it’s basically just another rehab start. Nothing against them, but could you have chosen a better opponent for Carp yesterday? Demoralized after the losses of Teixeira to the Halos and Hudson and Chipper to the DL, the Braves’ only decent hitters in the lineup yesterday were Escobar and Kotchman (sorry Jeff Francoeur, you’re not decent right now).
If nothing changes in the St. Louis rotation, Carpenter’s next starts would be at home against the Dodgers and Cubs and then on the road against Cincy. Not great matchups, but I’ll start him against the Dodgers and then decide whether I want to risk it against the Cubbie juggernaut.

I’m not counting on much from him. When I activate Carp from the DL I’m going to hold onto Matt Garza and Nolasco, so I’ll still have pitching depth. That’s not to say I’m not hoping though. He could be one of those players who dominates down the stretch and wins me a league. How about 8-2, 65 1/3IP, 59H, 57K, 12BB, 20ER, 7HR? It’s not that far off is it?

I’ve got to make a decision when I activate him though, and I hate to say it, but it looks like Cristian Guzman’s going to be the odd man out. The way I see it, Garza and Nolasco (the other two players I’d consider dropping) are harder to replace than Guzman. There are other decent shortstops out on waivers (the O.C., for example) and I’m starting J.J. Hardy every day over Guzman anyways. Still, it’s disappointing to have to drop a player who’s subbed in so well for me this year when he’s second in the NL in hits. Guzman’s line in my team log: 67/216, 28R, 2HR, 10 RBI (ouch), 2 SB, .310 AVG.

With the August 10th trade deadline looming, I need to decide whether this is the team I want to stick with for the next two months. I like what I have, but I wouldn’t mind upgrading over Encarnacion at utility. Obviously it would have been nice if Zimmerman had been that upgrade, but I’m going to wait for him to force my hand. Instead, I’m considering packaging a pitcher and a bat for a better hitter. No one seems to like receiving two lesser players for a stud though, so I may have to make some sort of a challenge trade instead.

My Apologies

It’s been a while since I’ve updated the blog, and no, I haven’t fallen out of the race. Basically I’ve been busy in my real life so I’ve barely had time to play fantasy baseball, let alone blog about it.

I’m in the hunt though, and with my team as healthy as it’s ever been, I’ll blog through the end of the season as I try to bring home the title.

+5 Points: An Unbelievable Tuesday

I was happy with 5.5 points the other day, but there’s no way I expected a follow-up performance like this from my team.

10.5 points is a lot to gain over the course of two days, but anything’s possible when you get good pitching.

Justin Verlander was incredible for the Tigers, going 7 innings, only allowing 3 baserunners and two earned runs, and striking out 7. Randy Wolf was just as good, going 7 shutout innings and continuing his streak of strong performances at home. The best part about my pitching is that both Wolf and Verlander got the win, moving me ahead in the tightly-packed win column.

On the hitting side, I got 8 RBI, 8 runs, 2 steals and 3 homers for a nicely balanced attack. Brian McCann continued to prove that he is the best hitting catcher in baseball with a 2 homer night and Ryan Braun added a statement of his own.

I also have a potential trade in the works. Since I have more starting pitchers than I can really hold onto all year and Dan’s low in innings, I’m talking about acquiring Ben Sheets in exchange for a few of my arms. I started by offering Dice-K and Parra, but the most recent version of the deal has me parting with Parra, Garza and Ricky Nolasco, all of whom are ranked in the top 100 fantasy players this month according to Yahoo (Nolasco is 3rd!). It’s tough to part like a guy like Nolasco, but I wouldn’t have room to keep all of those guys anyways and Ben Sheets is the best pitcher in the deal. I’m hoping to work something out soon so that I can get a Sheets start in before the break. If the deal falls through, I’ll move on to other players who have weak starters so that they can load up on reliable arms throughout the 2nd half.

+5.5 Points: An Unbelievable Monday

Eric Hinkse hit his 14th homer of the year yesterday, and even though he probably won’t play more than 2 or 3 more times for me throughout the rest of the year, I sure enjoyed the homer he hit. It wasn’t enough to get Matt Garza the win (more on that later) but Hinske’s day was characteristic of my entire team today.
Hinske, like Garza, Ricky Nolasco and Manny Parra is a waiver-wire pickup who isn’t likely to be on my roster at year’s end. I’m proud of the pickup, but I dropped him already to pick up Randy Wolf for his start against the Marlins tonight.

Along with Hinske, Matt Holliday and Big Daddy Vladdy homered, giving me a solid line of 11/27, 3R, 3HR, 5RBI. Not bad for a Monday.

Another side note on Hinkse before talking about the pitching line tonight: he and Garza were the first Rays to play for my team this year, but now I’ve had at least one player from each AL team and at least one player from every NL team but the Cards and Giants.

Garza wasn’t great for the Rays against the Royals. His final line (6.2 IP, 9H, 2BB, 5K, 3ER) was solid thanks to his success at emerging from jams unscathed, but he did allow 11 baserunners in less than 7 innings. Still, I’ll take the 5 Ks and decent ERA. I’m holding onto him for his start against the Indians, since they’re not really scaring anyone at this point.

Dice-K was the second of three starters I had going today, and he was the second best. He picked up 5 Ks and didn’t allow a run in 7.1 IP, but the Red Sox couldn’t beat the surprising Twins pitching until the 8th, so Dice-K didn’t get the win. He’s still so frustrating though, and his command is not good, so I’ll see if I can dangle him for a comparable starter.

The best start I got today was from Ricky Nolasco. He went 8 innings, only allowing one run and striking out 7 (including the last man to face him) en route to his 10th win of the year. I have to say that there was no reason to expect anything less from Nolasco, given that he’d been unbelievable in the 11 starts leading up to this one. A 3.01 ERA, a 60/18 K/BB ratio and an 8-1 record are pretty appealing, especially when you’re going up against the Friars.

No question about it, I’m holding onto Nolasco for his start against the Dodgers and then I’ll see what I can get for him on the market. It’s not that I want to trade him, but if someone’s looking to overpay for pitching, I’ll be more than happy to indulge him. If not, I’ll hold onto Nolasco until the hot streak ends.

Because of the C.C. trade, Manny Parra came out of the 'pen for a scoreless inning in a game in which Brian Fuentes pitched a perfect 9th for the save. Everything went well for my pitchers today. It was a 5 category day that I probably won’t replicate the rest of the way, but I’m just going to enjoy this line while it lasts:

24IP, 1W, 1 Save, 19 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.

Thanks to this line, and to my hitters as well, I’m at 79 points. My goal for the day was to get to 75, and I surpassed that by a lot. I’d love to be at 80 by the All-Star break and just go from there.

As far as this evening goes, I’m clearly pitching Justin Verlander against the Tribe, but, as I mentioned before, I also picked up Randy Wolf. He’s been amazing at home this year, ranking fifteenth in the majors in strikeouts at home. The Marlins’ offense hasn’t been great lately, and there’s nothing like Petco to stifle an offense. I like Wolf today, but I don’t particularly like him going forward, so I’m dropping him in favor of Clay Buchholz after his start against the Fish.

+1 Point: Back in Fourth Place

Pretty much everything went according to plan yesterday. Mike Mussina delivered his 6th quality start in his last seven appearances against one of the better offenses in baseball, Matt Holliday continued to rake (he’s 14 for his last 31) and Alex Rios continues to make his best Brian Roberts impression (3 more SB and still no power).

I have 74.5 points now, and even though it’s on the wrong side of 75, I’ve been climbing up steadily the last few days. Once I get to 80 points anything is possible. I can gain three points in wins with three wins and I have three starters going on Monday in Garza, Nolasco and Dice-K.

I know that I’ve said that I don’t have confidence in Mussina because “he turns 40 this year, his strikeout rate is low (5K/9IP) and righties have an OPS of .896 against him”. Mussina began the year with a very low K-rate, but since the beginning of June, he’s been striking out almost 7 per nine. If he can continue to strike hitters out at this rate, he’ll be successful enough to warrant a roster spot year long.

I wish the Pirates would start winning so we’d have a better idea of who’s going to get the save ops in lieu of Matt Capps. I have John Grabow, but I’m worried that he’s not going to get the chances even though he probably deserves a shot at it given that he’s been reliable all year long for the Bucs.

+0.5 Points: The Slow Climb

Neither Manny Parra nor Justin Verlander had great stuff yesterday, but both pitched well enough to win.
Unfortunately for me, only Verlander actually got the win, because the D-Backs, for the first time since April 19th, scored 6 runs in an inning, beating the Brewers and their pen walk-off style and robbing Parra of what should have been his seventh win in as many starts.

I thought about picking up Bronson Arroyo for his start against the Nats, but his hit and homer rates are so bad that maybe even Washington can hit him. Instead, I’m only rolling with Derek Lowe today against the Giants.

Now that I’m getting some pitching it’d be nice to get the bats going too.

0 Points: From Fourth to… Fifth?

Even though I sunk further into mediocrity yesterday, I was pleased with my day.

Admittedly I got a little lucky when Alfredo Amezaga homered after a long rain delay in the bottom of the 7th to give the Marlins the lead and Ricky Nolasco the win.

Throw in a solid pitching performance by Dice-K (which he had a chance to win until Evan Longoria stepped into one for a two-run double) and a huge night for the Giambino and I had a pretty rewarding day. Unfortunately, Jason Giambi was basically my entire offense yesterday, accounting for 2 of my 6 hits, 2 of my 5 runs, 6 of my 7 RBI and my only homer. Of course when a player has a day like that it’s OK when no one else hits, which is why I was satisfied with the team.

Today I’m gambling that Manny Parra, the winner of his last six starts, can come through against the deflated D-Backs who fell below .500 yesterday (42-43) for the first time since April 3rd. It’s the second time in a week that I’m betting on the Brewers pitchers to overcome the Arizona offense, and this time it’s against Brandon Webb. Even still, the D-Backs have had so much trouble scoring and Parra’s been so hot lately that I’m confident in the matchup… if only his walk rate wasn’t so high.

Still, I have Justin Verlander going too, so I’ll count on him to undo any damage Parra does in the afternoon.

No Fiasco For Nolasco

Ricky Nolasco came through with a dominant performance this afternoon, putting an end to the trend of poor starts for my pitchers.

Before the rain set in in Miami, Nolasco pitched 7 innings, retiring 14 of the last 15 batters to face him. He only allowed three hits and didn’t walk a man, striking out 8.

As I found out from the FSN Miami broadcast team, Nolasco has now allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Given that his next two starts are against the Padres (always a struggling offense) and Dodgers (currently a struggling offense) I think I’ll hold onto Nolasco until the break.

I know it was the Nationals sans Zimmerman, Guzman and Milledge, but Nolasco really pounded the strike zone fearlessly. His fastball was in the 92-94 range on the outside corner and his curve was a consistent out-pitch.

He’s likely not going to get the win, but I’m really happy with the Nolasco pickup.

+ 0.5 Points: A Day at the Races

In spite of Wandy Rodriguez’s weak performance, I had a decent day yesterday.

Brian Roberts was a stat-stuffer for me yesterday, stealing a bag and hitting a bomb. Willie Taveras and Matt Holliday also stole bases for me to give me four steals and put me in first place in steals.
However, my WHIP continues to soar, since Wandy allowed 10 baserunners through 5 innings, but guys like Wandy are on waivers for a reason. They’re just not as proven and reliable as the Tim Hudsons of the world.

I don’t regret starting Wandy any more than I regret starting Dave Bush a couple days back. I mean Wandy was pitching in the midst of a hot streak, at home, where he’s been great, and against an offense that amassed only three hits in its last two games against the Angels this weekend.

I haven’t lost complete confidence in Wandy or Dave Bush. If they’re pitching in the right situation, I’ll go for it. The fact that they allowed 9 ER in 10 innings is pretty rough, especially since it means I need to go out there and pick starters up to try and gain some points back in the pitching rate cats.

To help me climb back into things, I’m pitching Ricky Nolasco against the Nats this afternoon. After doing so much research for Dave Bush and Wandy only to get no results in return, I decided to make a quick pick this time and see what happens. I just sorted today’s starters by how well they’ve pitched in the last month and picked the man atop the list (it made things easier when I saw that he was facing the Nats at home!).

-3.5 Points: Disaster Strikes

Yesterday was a complete failure.

My team went 6/36 with only 4 runs and a steal. That’s right, no homers and no RBI.

The worst part of it all is that I feel like an idiot for pitching Dave Bush and benching Mike Mussina. Mussina managed to strike out 8 Rangers, allowing only 7 baserunners and 2 runs over six solid innings in a losing effort.

Down in the desert, Dave Bush was solid through four innings before one of the more frustrating half innings of my fantasy season unfolded in front of me. The D-Backs leveraged a bloop double by Stephen Drew and a bloop single by Conor Jackson into a three run inning.

Now I’m not going to say that Bush deserved to come out of the inning unscathed, but it’s pretty frustrating to see Bill Hall, who’s not exactly Brooks Robinson at the hot corner, allow a blooper to fall in for a double. What was perhaps the most infuriating play of all came when Jackson, the next batter, blooped a ball in front of Corey Hart in shallow right. Hart’s throw short hopped Kendall so a run scores. Fair enough, Arizona deserved to score on that play. But not twice. Dave Bush, unfortunately for the Brewers and any fantasy owners of his, decided not to back up home plate on the play (check the clip "jackson scores drew and ojeda with a double"), so when the ball skidded past his receiver to the backstop, no one was able to prevent Drew from scoring.

Again, I’m not saying that Bush deserved to win; he allowed hard hit balls to go along with the bloopers. It’s just that I’d rather see my pitchers allow runs because other teams hit them, not because they neglect to back up a throw from the outfield in a close game.

Oh, and in Colorado Brian Fuentes faced five batters and they all scored.

Wandy Rodriguez had better pitch well tonight against LA.

Am I Really Benching Mike Mussina?

Yes, of course I am.

Basically, I have more confidence in the Rangers offense to beat up on Moose than I do in Mussina to shut down the Rangers.

Not only do they have Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and now Chris Davis, but they have the #1 OPS in baseball against righties.

This was an easy decision. I hope Mussina does well, but I'm expecting 4.1IP, 6ER, 3BB, 9H, 2K and I don't want anything to do with it.

Am I Really Starting Dave Bush?

When a guy who needs to make up ground in ERA and WHIP goes out of his way to pick up Dave Bush, it seems more than a little odd, but that’s exactly what I’m doing today. His ERA is 4.94, his WHIP is 1.23 and he only has 45 strikeouts this year. Not only that, he’s playing on the road against the first place D-Backs.

So let me explain my reasoning.

First off, in June, Bush is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 32 innings with 18 Ks. This qualifies him as a reasonably hot pitcher.

In his first eight starts, Bush was 1-5 with an ERA of 6.56 and a WHIP of 1.46. Since his May 22nd start against the Pirates (a game that I was at and for which Bush is warming up in the picture) Bush has really turned things around. His ERA is 3.00 and his WHIP is below 1 over the course of his 6 most recent starts.


Bush is on a hot team, too, as his Brewers have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games. On the other hand, the D-Backs have won only 4 of their past 14 games. I’m not going to suggest that this means Bush will pitch well, but it gives me that much more confidence throwing him out there.

The main reason that Arizona is scuffling so badly is because they’re not scoring runs. Over the course of the month of June, they’re only averaging 3.23 runs per game. They’ve scored a mere 84 runs this month. To put that in perspective, the lowly Blue Jays, whose offense was bad enough to get John Gibbons fired, have scored 109 runs in June and the Phillies scored 67 runs the week of May 21 to 27.

It’s pathetic really. The D-Backs have scored 3 or fewer runs in 18 of the 26 games they’ve played this month and they’ve only scored more than five runs three times. This is not an offense that scares you.

In fact, Arizona’s offense has never scared Dave Bush. In his career, he’s 4-0 with a 3.55 ERA against the snakes. Bush has dominated against current members of the D-Backs,. As a group, they’re 17/85 for a line of 200/244/400. Not only is their OPS a meager 644 against Bush, he’s struck out 17 while walking only two.

You might say that Bush’s road numbers seem awful, but his 6.92 road ERA is definitely not a reflection of his peripherals, which are basically the same as they are at Miller Park.

So this is a long way of justifying my choice. The fact that it’s taken this much effort to prove my point shows that this isn’t exactly like starting Johan against the Giants, but I’ve convinced myself that I’ve made the right call.

Trading Pitching for Pitching

By now, nearly every baseball fan admits that wins really are a silly stat, but I have a soft spot for the pitchers who have been putting up their wins on my roster. This means that I’m on the verge of being a little too patient with guys like Mike Mussina and Dice-K.

Dice-K’s put up 9 wins in my lineup, to go along with 60 Ks in 70 innings, and ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 1.39 (no thanks to those 40 BB). Musina’s a new addition to my roster, but in 22 innings, he’s won me a game, put up 11 Ks and respectable ratios of 3.68 and 1.14 in limited playing time.

The thing is, there’s no way this is going to continue. I like Mussina, but he turns 40 this year, his strikeout rate is low (5K/9IP) and righties have an OPS of .896 against him. It’s not that I
don’t think Mussina’s good, I just want to do better.

As far as Dice-K goes, he’s clearly pitching over his head. As others have pointed out
in great detail, his homer per fly ball rate is too low and his walk rate is too high. The strikeouts are great, but the blowouts are awful, so I want to trade him while his value is as high as it is.

I’ve offered the two of them straight up for Ervin Santana and Jonathan Sanchez.

Sanchez has good numbers at a glance, and they look better the more you look at them. His ERA’s below 4, but it’s been falling all year long. He’s lowered his ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this year and his only season-long problem is his high walk rate. The one time Sanchez has allowed more than 3 earnies since May 6th was at Coors Field, so I’m not worried. The gaudy strikeout totals lure you in, but there’s more than that to Jonathan Sanchez.

I’ve been saying since April that Ervin Santana’s this year’s version of Fausto Carmona, but maybe I should revise that. Santana’s this year’s version of Fausto Carmona plus about 65 strikeouts. For a pitcher who was wildly inconsistent last year after a promising 16 win 2006 campaign (remember those home-road splits?) Big Erv has made huge strides. His ERA has stayed between 2.02 and 3.40 all year long, and he’s only walked more than three once.

Big Erv has solidified himself as one of the best young pitchers in the game thanks to his hot start to 2008. Seriously, Santana is up there with Lincecum, Volquez and Marcum as young starters who have really put it together this year. I think that getting him as a part of this deal would be amazing and he’s the guy I really want.

Meet My Fantasy Team

Tonight, June 29th 2008, Major League Baseball's season reached its halfway point, with my fantasy baseball team mired in fourth place in my twelve team league. As I make the decisions that shape my season, I'll blog about them here. Don't worry, that doesn't mean you'll read about every single trade I reject and every single Alexis Rios grounder to short. But this is where I'll vent when Willie Taveras puts up 5 steal nights on my bench or whenTodd Jones blows a Justin Verlander gem and it's where I'll explain the reasoning behind the pitchers I pick up for spot starts. More than anything, it will memorialize the second half of my first fantasy baseball season.

Before I go into any more detail, I should explain that, personally, this team is more important to me than the three others I manage, since it’s part of a league that I started this year with 11 of my fantasy baseball-playing friends. I’ve indulged in a lot of trade-talk and trash-talk this year so my reputation as a baseball fan is, to a certain extent, on the line.

The league’s structure is nothing fancy; we’re talking traditional 12 team 5x5 mixed roto league (Average, R, HR, RBI, SB and ERA, WHIP, Ks, W, S).

Here’s where I stand in it so far: I’m in fourth, with 74 points. The three teams ahead of me have 94, 91 and 88 points so I’m pretty far back from the leaders. As tempting as it is to discuss each of the ten categories in excruciating detail, I’ll just give a quick summary of what it’ll take for me to re-join Dan, Nathan and Luke atop the standings.

I need to improve my starting pitching, which is currently maddening, so I don’t have to rely on spot starts from Dave Bush for quality innings. I need Rafael Furcal and JJ Putz to come back from the DL without much delay and start producing. More than anything else, I need my team to stay reasonably healthy for the rest of the year. My team’s not good enough to win this league right now, but I’m a trade or two away from having all the pitching I need to win it all.

Take a look at my current roster. I’m embarrassed by the back of my rotation, but other than that I like this team:


So, halfway through the season, I’m in fourth place with a decent team. I’d be lying if I said I thought my team was the best in the league or if I thought I had the best chance of winning it, but I have everything I need to put together a big run. I’ll blog about my progress- good or bad- until the end of the season as I try to climb from fourth to first.